AP – For many across the Middle East, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire came as a relief: the first major sign of progress in the region since war began more than a year ago.
But for Palestinians in Gaza and families of hostages held in the territory, the news appeared only to inaugurate a newer, grimmer period of the conflict there. For them, it marked yet another missed opportunity to end fighting that has stretched on for nearly 14 months.
Palestinians had hoped that any ceasefire deal with Hezbollah would include a truce in Gaza as well. Instead, the ceasefire was confined only to the fighting in Lebanon.
As much as they were intertwined, the two wars have been very different. In Lebanon, Israel said its aim was to drive Hezbollah back from the countries’ shared border and end the militant group’s barrages into northern Israel. The ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday is intended to do that.
In Gaza, Israel’s goals are more sweeping. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been resolute in insisting that Hamas must be completely destroyed and Israel must retain lasting control over parts of the territory.
Months of talks have failed to get Netanyahu to back down from those demands.
For Palestinians in Gaza, that means continuing misery under an Israeli campaign that has demolished much of the territory and driven almost the entire population from their homes.
Hundreds of thousands are going hungry while living in squalid tent cities as the second winter of the war brings cold rains and flooding.
“They agree to a ceasefire in one place and not in the other? Have mercy on the children, the elderly and the women,” said Ahlam Abu Shalabi, living in tent in central Gaza. “Now it is winter, and all the people are drowning.”
PALESTINIANS FEEL RESIGNED TO CONTINUED WAR
The war between Israel and Hamas escalated on October 7, 2023 and Israel attacks has rained devastation on the Palestinian territory, killing over 44,000 people, according to local health officials.
The officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and fighters in their count, say over half of the dead are women and children. While Hezbollah began to retaliate against Israel a day after in solidarity with the Palestinian group.
The two sides have exchanged near-daily barrages since.
Moving thousands of troops to its northern border, Israel ramped up bombardment of southern Lebanon and launched a ground invasion there two months ago, killing many of Hezbollah’s leaders.
Palestinians now fear Israel’s military can return its full focus to Gaza – a point that Netanyahu made as he announced the ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday.
“The pressure will be more on Gaza,” said a displaced man in a central Gaza tent camp Mamdouh Younis. Netanyahu, he said, can now exploit the fact that “Gaza has become alone, far from all the arenas that were supporting it, especially the Lebanon front.”
Israeli troops are already engaged in fierce fighting in Gaza’s north, where a two-month offensive has cut off most aid and caused experts to warn a famine may be underway.
Strikes all over the territory regularly kill dozens. In signing onto the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah reversed its long-held position that it wouldn’t stop its barrages across the border unless Israel ends the war in Gaza.
“This could have a psychological impact, as it will further entrench the understanding that Palestinians in Gaza are alone in resisting against their occupiers,” said a United States (US) policy fellow at Al-Shabaka, a Palestinian think tank Tariq Kenney Shawa.
It also leaves Hamas – its capabilities already severely damaged by Israel’s offensive – to fight alone. Hamas official Osama Hamdan appeared to accept Hezbollah’s new position in an interview Monday.
HAMAS MAY DIG ITS HEELS IN
“Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome. Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices,” Hamdan told the Lebanese broadcaster Al-Mayadeen, which is seen as politically allied with Hezbollah.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire could help force Hamas to the negotiating table because it would show the group that the “cavalry is not on the way.”
But Hamas experts predicted that it would only dig in both on the battlefield and in talks.
Hamas has insisted it will only release all the hostages in return for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. “I expect Hamas will continue using guerrilla warfare to confront Israeli forces in Gaza as long as they remain,” said Shawa.
