Asia Weighs Potential US Policy Shifts as Trump and Harris Eye White House
WASHINGTON (ANN/THE STRAITS TIMES) – As the United States prepares to welcome its 47th president in 2025, a new pair of high-profile guests from China—two giant pandas—will soon debut at Washington’s Smithsonian National Zoo on January 24. While the furry ambassadors aim to charm visitors, the broader US-China relationship has reached a critical juncture, raising questions in Asia about what the future holds.
The impact of the November 5 presidential election looms large in Asia, with both candidates presenting distinct, yet complex, policy implications. Many Asian stakeholders, while cautiously optimistic about Vice-President Kamala Harris, are mindful of the potential economic and diplomatic disruptions that a second Trump presidency could entail.
Shifting trade and security concerns in Asia
Former President Donald Trump’s return could mean intensified tariffs and another round of trade wars, with potential implications for Asia’s manufacturing networks. His push for a weaker US dollar may strain Southeast Asian exports, and ASEAN nations could face heightened pressure to align with US policies in the intensifying US-China rivalry. Trump is expected to prioritise competition with China, which could escalate diplomatic tensions in the region.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris is expected to maintain the general approach of President Joe Biden, favouring sanctions on select industries critical to US economic security. Her multilateral, consultative style may resonate better with Southeast Asian nations seeking stability, though neither candidate offers a perfect approach, noted Malaysian officials and experts interviewed by The Straits Times.
“The difference between Harris and Trump is one of intensity, not direction,” commented Malaysia’s Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Liew Chin Tong, indicating that Asia should expect continuity in US foreign policy regardless of who wins.
Regional security concerns for East Asia
Trump’s first term caused friction when he urged Japan and South Korea to increase their financial contributions for US troop presence, a demand he may revive. South Korean officials worry about potential US troop withdrawals, which could lead South Korea to pursue its own nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, Japan’s response remains pragmatic but cautious, as leaders weigh Trump’s previous friendly rapport with Japan against Harris’ likely support for existing alliances.
Experts suggest that Harris would continue Biden’s legacy, including alliances such as the Quad, while Trump may return to a more transactional approach. Lynn Kuok, of the Brookings Institution, remarked that “a more hawkish Trump 2.0 would still aim to deepen ties with allies to counter China,” while Harris may emphasise multilateralism.
A resilient Southeast Asia prepares for policy shifts
Outside East Asia, nations like the Philippines and India are confident their US ties will endure regardless of who wins. The Philippines anticipates continued defence cooperation under a Harris administration, while Trump may favour more decisive language on regional issues. India, a cornerstone in US Indo-Pacific policy, expects stable relations under either administration.
Meanwhile, Southeast Asia remains poised to diversify trade away from any single market. As industries seek to mitigate risk, Malaysia, for instance, sees itself as an essential link in global supply chains. “Malaysia must make itself indispensable, whether the opportunity is short- or long-term,” said Deputy Minister Liew.
Business concerns amid potential trade policies
Trump’s “beautiful” tariffs, targeting Chinese and other imports, remain a concern for business leaders wary of new trade barriers. While corporate America may push back, the policy direction will depend on Capitol Hill’s stance. Wendy Cutler, vice-president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that Trump’s tariff hikes could have significant regional effects, particularly for manufacturing economies reliant on US markets.
Ms. Harris’ likely adherence to Biden’s worker-centric trade policy offers a more predictable approach. Southeast Asia, in particular, could benefit from continued support for digital economies and strategic partnerships under her leadership, aiding regional growth in tech and resources.
Ultimately, Asia’s leaders are prepared to navigate potential changes under either administration, seeking opportunities amid the challenges. As Mr. Liew remarked, “The region must position itself for resilience, regardless of who holds the US presidency.
