ANN/VIETNAM NEWS – The price of Vietnamese pepper is expected to keep rising in 2025 due to a global supply decline, while demand remains stable in major markets such as the United States (US) and Europe.
China may begin purchasing pepper from Vietnam after the Lunar New Year, according to industry experts at the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) annual meeting in Ho Chi Minh City.
The International Pepper Community (IPC) reports a four-per-cent (22,000-tonne) decrease in global pepper production in 2024 compared to 2023, mainly due to lower output in Brazil and Vietnam.
IPC forecasts that global production will continue to fall in 2025, driven by the reduced economic viability of pepper compared to other crops, with many farmers shifting away from it.
Climate change also impacted yields, while production costs have risen significantly.
VPSA Chairwoman Hoang Thi Lien noted that Vietnam exported 250,600 tonnes of pepper in 2023, valued at over USD1.3 billion, with black pepper accounting for USD1.1 billion and white pepper USD200 million.
Although the export volume in 2024 decreased by 5.1 per cent compared to 2023, the export value rose by 45.4 per cent due to significant price increases.
The US was Vietnam’s largest pepper export market in 2024, with 72,311 tonnes accounting for 28.9 per cent of the total, marking a 33.2-per-cent increase from 2023.
The US was followed by the United Arab Emirates, Germany, the Netherlands and India, she said.
Gohan Co Ltd Director Ho Tri Nhuan said that in 2024, demand for pepper in the US market was initially expected to grow by only five per cent. However, due to concerns over rising prices, importers started stockpiling, increasing their purchases by up to 40 per cent.
He noted that based on assessments of supply and demand, pepper exports in 2025 were expected to face both opportunities and uncertainties.
Stable market demand and reduced output in some regions would help maintain high pepper prices. However, the extent of price increases would depend on the purchasing pace of key markets like the US and China, he said.
Vietnam’s pepper exports to China decreased by 82.4 per cent last year. This was attributed to China’s economic slowdown in the early months of the year, leading to reduced consumer spending, the association said.
At the same time, China increased its purchases from other countries, such as Indonesia, due to more competitive prices compared to Vietnam.
However, the VPSA noted pepper inventory in China was now at a low level, and the market would likely increase its purchases again.
According to Nhuan, pepper prices in 2025 are expected to rise further. However, the pace of the increase – whether fast or slow – remains uncertain due to a variety of potential factors.
Nhuan said China was expected to increase its purchases as soon as Vietnam begins its main harvest season this spring, while the US might buy at a slower pace due to high inventory levels carried over from 2024.
Vietnamese pepper would also face competitive pressure from other pepper-producing countries.
Businesses needed to closely monitor market trends and purchases from partners to develop appropriate plans for procurement, stockpiling and cash flow management.
