Brunei Darussalam’s economy is projected to grow at 2.4 per cent this year, 2.5 per cent next year (2025) and 3.1 per cent in 2029, International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report published this week.
The WEO publication came weeks after the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast the Sultanate’s economic growth at 3.7 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year, and ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office’s (AMRO) own annual flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2024 which forecast a 2.7 per cent growth this year and 2.9 per cent in 2025.
The IMF said the world economy will continue growing at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, the same pace as in 2023.
A slight acceleration for advanced economies – where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 per cent in 2023 to 1.7 per cent in 2024 and 1.8 per cent in 2025 – will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging markets and developing economies – from 4.3 per cent in 2023 to 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025.
The forecast for global growth five years from now – at 3.1 per cent – is at its lowest in decades.
Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 per cent in 2023 to 5.9 per cent in 2024 and 4.5 per cent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.
Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.
“The global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability,” the report said.
“The global economy continues to display remarkable resilience, with growth holding steady and inflation declining,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. “But many challenges still lie ahead.”
“Most indicators continue to point to a soft landing,” he said, referring to attempts by many central bank to bring inflation down to target without fuelling unemployment or hampering economic growth.
Recently Brunei’s Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies (CSPS) said in its latest publication Brunei Economic Outlook 2024 said the nation’s economy was forecast to record a positive performance with an estimated 2.7 per cent growth for 2024 for its second consecutive year.
The forecast – in line with the IMF, the ADB and the AMRO – projected that the non-oil and gas sector will continue its modest expansion into 2024 helping diversify the economy despite a forecasted contraction in services.
The largest expected contributor to gross domestic product growth in 2024 remains the oil and gas sector, as well as the downstream segments as they revert to their growth trajectory after shrinking last year. – Azlan Othman
