Azlan Othman
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) issued a Level 1 alert indicating the start of the dry season associated with the southwest monsoon in the southern ASEAN region.
In a media statement recently, it said: “Persistent drier weather has been observed over most parts of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and southern Thailand in recent days as the monsoon rain band moves north of the Equator.
“With a high likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in the coming months, the dry season is expected to be more intense and prolonged compared to recent years, and may extend into October.”
The report added: “Presently, hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are still subdued with 14 and 13 hotspots detected in the southern ASEAN region on May 27 and 28.
A few localised smoke plumes were detected but no transboundary smoke haze occurrence has been observed so far.
“Since earlier this year, warmer subsurface ocean temperatures have been observed in the eastern tropical Pacific, which is an early sign that support El Niño conditions developing in the next few months. Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which suppresses cloud formation over certain parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, may develop in the next one to two months.”
“Both climate phenomena typically bring drier and warmer conditions to many parts of the southern ASEAN region.”
ASMC assesses that there is a higher risk of escalated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze occurrence in the southern ASEAN region between June and October 2023, compared to the last three years when the dry season was moderated by prolonged La Niña conditions. Early precautionary and mitigation measures are advised to prevent the occurrence of fires and transboundary haze in the region.
