CAIRO (AP) – Even with hopes running high, so much can go wrong when a country ousts a longtime dictator and tries to start anew. The Middle Eastern and North African nations that attempted to transition to democracy in recent years can attest to that.
Now it’s Syria’s turn to try to get it right.
It’s hard to draw lessons from the experiences of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Sudan, as each country’s dynamics are different, But there are common themes.
In some cases, “the Revolution” was lost when armed factions battled it out for power or an ambitious would-be strongman emerged. In others, the military refused to cede control to civilians or foreign countries fuelled conflicts by backing one side or another with money and weapons.
Questions must be asked before major decisions are made that can spark a destabilising backlash: How do you deal with the old police state – purge or compromise? What do you do first, hold elections or write a constitution? And how do you fix a crippled economy riddled with corruption?
So far, Syria’s transition has been surprisingly smooth. But it’s only been two weeks since President Bashar Assad was toppled, and many of those same dangers lurk in the background.
The insurgents who ousted Assad are rooted in extremist ideology, and though they have vowed to create a pluralist system, it isn’t clear how or whether they plan to share power.
Other armed factions – or even remnants of Assad’s feared security forces – could lash out.
And it remains to be seen whether the Kurds, who hold autonomous rule in the east, will be brought back into the fold, especially when Turkiye fiercely opposes the main Kurdish faction.
Groups such as the Alawites, to whom Assad’s family belongs, fear being squeezed out of any role, or worse, being targeted for revenge.
Here’s a look at the power dynamics in some of these other countries:
YEMEN
Protests forced Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign in November 2011, ending his 33-year rule. Under a deal brokered by Gulf countries, Saleh received immunity and handed his powers to his vice president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
Hadi was to serve as caretaker president for two years, during which a new constitution would be written, leading eventually to elections. But Saleh, who remained in the capital, Sanaa, allied himself with Houthi rebels based in the north – his longtime enemy – in a bid to regain power.
Backed by Saleh’s loyalists, the Houthis seized Sanaa and much of the populated centre of the country. Hadi and his government fled south, where they are based in the city of Aden and control southern and much of eastern Yemen.
A coalition of Arab countries launched a bombardment campaign aimed at restoring Hadi’s government. Since then, Yemen has been torn by civil war that has killed more than 150,000 people and caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The war became a proxy conflict. Yemen has remained split between the Houthis, who later broke with Saleh’s camp and killed Saleh, and Hadi’s government. Various militias nominally back Hadi but also have their own interests and are funded by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
LIBYA
Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi met the most violent end of any of the region’s strongmen. An uprising turned into a civil war, and then with NATO backing, the rebels seized the capital, Tripoli, and killed a fleeing Gadhafi in October 2011.
The oil-rich nation quickly splintered into regions controlled by a dizzying array of militias, including local and tribal groups, nationalists and mainstream factions, and diehard groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group.
Attempts to stitch it back together with elections or agreements have failed.
A disputed parliamentary election in 2014 led to two rival administrations: one in the east backed by powerful military commander Khalifa Hifter, and the other in the west based in Tripoli that is backed by militias and recognised by the United Nations.
Hifter tried to seize the west in 2019, triggering a 14-month war. Then, an attempt at a unity government and new elections fell apart, and once again Libya was left split between east-west governments.
SUDAN
In Sudan, the powerful military has thwarted attempts to transition to an elected civilian government.
Pro-democracy protests prompted the military to remove strongman Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, and the generals took power for themselves. The protesters stayed in the streets, demanding a handover of power to civilians, despite a crackdown that killed hundreds.
Finally, the generals agreed to a power-sharing deal with the pro-democracy alliance that led the protests.
A civilian prime minister led a Cabinet backed by a council headed by two powerful generals, including one notorious for atrocities committed in Darfur and during the 2019 crackdown on protesters. But just before the military was supposed to hand over the council’s leadership to civilians, the generals orchestrated a coup.
A few months later, in April 2023, the generals turned on each other, triggering a war in which their forces have battled throughout the country, including in the capital, Khartoum.
The war has been marked by atrocities, caused widespread hunger and driven millions from their homes, becoming the world’s worst displacement crisis.
TUNISIA
Until recently, Tunisia was hailed as a role model in the transition to democracy. It held free elections and drafted a constitution lauded by Western rights groups.
But since being elected in 2019, President Kais Saied has increased his powers in what activists call a backslide from democracy. Saied temporarily suspended the Parliament, redrafted the constitution and launched a crackdown on his opponents, imprisoning hundreds allegedly for undermining state security.
EGYPT
The military has been the main power player in Egypt. It seized direct control after 18 days of protests forced longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak to resign on February 11, 2011.
Within 15 months, parliamentary and presidential elections were held. The Muslim Brotherhood, the most powerful opposition force during Mubarak’s era, swept both votes.
Despite repeatedly insisting it wouldn’t seek to dominate politics, it formed a majority in parliament and created a Brotherhood-led government. Over the next year, turmoil increased over accusations by opponents that the Brotherhood was unfairly imposing its will on the country.
Amid anti-Brotherhood protests, the military stepped in and removed President Mohammed Morsi in July 2013. It launched a ferocious crackdown on the Brotherhood.
Military chief Abdel Fattah el-Sissi was elected president in 2014 and has since increased the influence of the army on the government and economy.
The government has gone further than Mubarak did in stifling dissent, arresting extremists and secular activists, and silencing media criticism.
