HANOI (ANN/Việt Nam News) – Vietnam is projected to achieve a 6.5 per cent growth rate in 2025, reaffirming its position as one of the fastest-growing economies in the ASEAN+3 region, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)’s latest regional economic outlook report.
Although this figure falls below the country’s expected GDP growth of 7.09 per cent for 2024, it aligns with Việt Nam’s 2025 growth target of 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.
Allen Ng, leader of AMRO’s Regional Surveillance Group, emphasised Vietnam’s resilience, underpinned by strong export performance and proactive economic measures.
“Despite global trade tensions, Vietnam has demonstrated remarkable resilience through its robust export sector. Authorities remain vigilant, implementing supportive policies to maintain economic momentum into 2025,” Ng told Việt Nam News.
Exports remain a key growth driver for Vietnam, leveraging diversified trade relationships and a competitive labor market. Investments in high-tech manufacturing and digitalisation have further enhanced productivity and value, ensuring the country’s competitiveness amidst shifting global supply chains.
In 2024, Vietnam’s exports surged by 14.3 per cent to USD405.53 billion, while imports increased by 16.7 per cent to USD380.76 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of nearly USD25 billion — marking the ninth consecutive year of surplus.
Vietnam’s 6.5 per cent growth forecast exceeds the regional average and outpaces major peers like the Philippines (6.3 per cent), Indonesia (5.1 per cent), and Thailand (3.1 per cent). The country’s inflation is expected to reach 3.5 per cent in 2025, remaining well within its target range of 3 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
While Vietnam continues its strong recovery from the pandemic, the broader ASEAN+3 region is forecast to grow at 4.2 per cent in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels.
The Plus-3 economies — China, Japan, and South Korea — are expected to face significant headwinds due to rising trade barriers, including anticipated increases in US tariffs on Chinese goods. Their growth is projected to slow to 4.0 per cent, compared to ASEAN’s higher growth estimate of 4.8 per cent.
Escalating trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, remain a critical challenge. AMRO estimates that higher US tariffs on Chinese imports could reduce ASEAN’s growth by 0.1 percentage points.
“The global tech upcycle boosted ASEAN+3’s export performance in 2024, helping offset weaknesses in domestic consumption in parts of the region,” said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor.
“However, rising trade tensions, particularly higher US tariffs, could weaken external demand in 2025, impacting the region and beyond.”
With a resilient export sector, strategic investments, and proactive policies, Việt Nam remains well-positioned to lead growth in the ASEAN+3 region despite global uncertainties.
