Typhoon modelling studies done by researchers at the Nanyang Technological University and two US institutes also found that coastal cities such as Bangkok, Yangon and Hai Phong in Vietnam are likely to bear the brunt of these longer-lasting and more powerful cyclones.
SINGAPORE (ANN/STRAITS TIMES) – Typhoon Gaemi, which recently struck the Philippines, Taiwan, and southern China, exemplifies the increasing severity and shifting paths of storms due to climate change. The typhoon, which hit in late July, marked the third named storm and second typhoon of the annual season, causing significant loss of life and widespread destruction.
As global temperatures rise, Southeast Asia is expected to experience more intense typhoons. These storms are predicted to move northwards, impacting areas such as China and the Korean Peninsula, and will slow down over land, causing more prolonged damage to densely populated coastal regions.
Research conducted by Nanyang Technological University (NTU) and two US institutes indicates that coastal cities like Bangkok, Yangon, and Hai Phong will be increasingly vulnerable to these stronger and longer-lasting cyclones. Professor Benjamin Horton, director of NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS), emphasised the expanding reach of tropical cyclones due to warming waters, predicting more frequent storms along the coasts of China and South Korea.
Typhoon modelling studies show that typhoons will increasingly form over the South China Sea and make landfall further north. This shift means fewer storms may originate east of the Philippines, though the nation will still face severe, high-magnitude typhoons.
Dr Dhrubajyoti Samanta, senior research fellow at EOS, explained that while the Philippines might experience fewer typhoons, the intensity of those that do occur could be greater, continuing to pose significant threats. The archipelago, often hit by about 20 storms annually, has witnessed devastating typhoons such as Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 and Typhoon Rai in 2021.
Future storms may follow Typhoon Gaemi’s path, which affected Taiwan, southern China, and reached North Korea. Although Gaemi did not make landfall in the Philippines, it intensified the southwest monsoon, causing severe rain and flooding in Manila and northern provinces.
The Southeast Asia typhoon study, involving researchers from Rowan University and the University of Pennsylvania, analysed over 64,000 simulated tropical cyclones from the 19th century to the end of the 21st century. The simulations revealed changes in cyclone formation, intensification, and decay, using nine different climate models to ensure accuracy. The findings were published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science in early July.
The study highlights the increasing likelihood of rapid cyclone intensification near Southeast Asian coastlines, posing significant challenges for forecasting and emergency response. Dr. Samanta noted that a storm could intensify into a severe typhoon within a day, stressing the need for enhanced extreme weather forecasting systems.
Prof Horton warned that rapid intensification provides less time for evacuation, underscoring the need for city planners to be prepared for sudden increases in storm severity.
As typhoons draw more energy from warmer waters, they linger longer over land, exacerbating destruction. Dr Samanta highlighted the increased devastation expected for mainland Southeast Asia as typhoons move more slowly before decaying.
Future research aims to combine these findings with sea-level rise projections to better equip coastal planners in protecting cities from severe damage. Prof Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology emphasized the importance of understanding changes in tropical cyclone patterns for effective coastal planning.
“Tropical cyclones and associated flooding are the most lethal and costly hazards affecting regions bordering the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Any shift in the frequency or intensity of this hazard will have potentially important consequences for this region, and coastal planners would be well advised to plan accordingly,” he said.
