ANKARA (AFP) – Although Turkish inflation slowed in September, it is still raging out of control with the government avoiding difficult decisions that could help tackle it, experts told AFP.
Turkiye has experienced spiralling inflation the past two years, peaking at an annual rate of 85.5 per cent in October 2022 and 75.45 per cent in May.
The government claims it slowed to 49.4 per cent in September.
But the figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists who estimate that year-on-year inflation stood at 88.6 per cent in September.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has said Ankara was hoping to bring inflation down to 17.6 per cent by the end of 2025 and to “single digits” by 2026.
And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently hailed Turkiye’s success in “starting the process of permanent disinflation”.
“The hard times are behind us,” he said.
But economists interviewed by AFP said the surge in consumer prices in Turkiye had become “chronic” and is being exacerbated by some government policies.
“The current drop is simply due to a base effect. The price rises over the course of a month is still high, at 2.97 per cent across Turkiye and 3.9 per cent in Istanbul.
“You can’t call this a success story,” said economics professor at Istanbul’s Marmara University Mehmet Sisman.
Spurning conventional economic practice of raising interest rates to curb inflation, Erdogan has long defended a policy of lowering rates, citing Islamic precepts that ban usury. That has sent the lira sliding, further fuelling inflation.
But after his reelection in May 2023, he gave Turkiye’s Central Bank free rein to raise its main interest rate from 8.5 to 50 per cent between June 2023 and March 2024.
The central bank’s rate remained unchanged in September for the sixth consecutive month.
“The fight against inflation revolves around the priorities of the financial sector. As a result, it is done indirectly and generates uncertainty,” explained economics professor at Kadir Has University in Istanbul Erinc Yeldan.
But raising interest rates alone is not enough to steady inflation without addressing massive budget deficits, according to economics professor at Karadeniz Technical University Yakup Kucukkale.
He pointed to Turkiye’s record budget deficit of TRY129.6 billion (EUR3.45 billion).
“Simsek says this is due to expenditure linked to the reconstruction in regions hit by the February 2023 earthquake,” he said of the disaster that killed more than 53,000 people.
“But the real black hole is due to the costly public-private partnership contracts,” he said, referring to infrastructure contracts which critics say are often awarded to firms close to Erdogan’s government.
Such contracts cover construction and management of everything from motorways and bridges to hospitals and airports, and are often accompanied by generous guarantees such as state compensation in the event they are underused.
“We should question these contracts, which are a burden on the budget because this compensation is indexed to the dollar or the euro,” said Kucukkale.
Anti-inflation measures also tend to impact low-income households at a time when the minimum wage hasn’t been raised since January, he said.
“But these people already have little purchasing power. To lower demand, such measures must target higher-income groups, but there is hardly anything affecting them,” he said.
“Austerity measures”, such as cancelling cleaning services in public schools, hit the most disadvantaged and reinforce inequalities, Yeldan said, indicating it would be preferable to introduce a “tax on wealth, financial transactions and property income”.
But Erdogan’s AKP ruling party relies on the support of “pro-government companies” who have won infrastructure contracts, he said.
According to a study by Koc University, households are expecting annual inflation to reach 94 per cent by the end of the year, well above the central bank’s forecasts.
