ANN/THE NATION – India’s resumption of rice exports last month has severely impacted Thai exporters, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA).
TREA President Chookiat Ophaswongse noted that India’s return, coupled with the Thai baht reaching a 30-month high of 32.37 per US dollar on September 30, has weakened the competitiveness of Thai rice exporters, reducing their revenues by THB3-4 per dollar.
The wholesale price of Thai white rice (five per cent) has also plummeted from THB22 per kilo at the start of the year to THB16-16.5 per kilo. The price drop has also affected Thai paddy rice (25 per cent moisture), with farm gate prices falling from THB10,000 per tonne during India’s export ban to just THB8,000-9,000 as of September 30.
The falling prices of Thai rice are expected to decline further as Thai exporters seek to remain competitive amid the influx of Indian white rice following the year-long export halt. In addition to India, Thailand is facing stiff competition from Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Cambodia, whose lower production prices, higher yields and weaker currencies give them a pricing advantage.
“Global trade in rice is likely to be subdued in the first week or two after India resumed exports, with buyers taking a wait-and-see approach to assess price trends,” Chookiat said.
He also noted that global rice production is forecast to rise next year, driven by increased rainfall from La Niña.
The increase in production is expected to see rice-importing countries reduce imports. The United States Department of Agriculture predicts that Indonesia will cut annual imports from four million tonnes to just 1.5 million tonnes next year. These negative factors are projected to drive down Thai rice exports from 8.5-8.7 million tonnes this year to around six million tonnes in 2025.
Meanwhile, India, the world’s number one rice exporter, is expected to export 18-19 million tonnes this year and even more in 2025. Vietnam is also poised to overtake Thailand as the world’s second-largest rice exporter as it shifts its export strategy to premium rice, including fragrant and soft varieties that fetch higher prices.
