TOKYO (ANN/THE JAPAN NEWS) – Japan’s natural population change has marked its largest ever drop, according to estimates released by the government on Monday. The figure is calculated by subtracting the number of deaths from the number of births.
The percentage of those age 65 or older also reached a record high.
The government intends to continue birth rate measures of a “different dimension,” as set forth by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and to improve these measures, but it has not been able to effectively deal with population decline, which is advancing at a pace faster than it had anticipated.
“For many people who want to have children, their dream hasn’t come true,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said at a press conference Monday. “We will promote comprehensive measures to realise a society where everyone who wishes to have children can have children.”
The natural annual decrease hit 890,000 last year, up 53,000 from 2023. That total is nearly the population of Akita Prefecture (897,000). A median projection by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, published in 2023, had foreseen a natural decrease of 728,000 in 2024. The institute had estimated that the natural decrease would reach 890,000 in 2035, meaning the rate of decline is about 10 years ahead of schedule.
The government is progressing with its “acceleration plan,” a three-year initiative aimed at actively tackling the declining birth rate beginning from fiscal 2024; however, concrete outcomes remain elusive. The government is expanding child allowances and making it easier to obtain childcare, yet the birth rate continues to fall. Certain individuals in the government have stated that government actions will fail to influence the choices of those who might abandon marriage and childbirth because of economic situations and additional reasons.
There are also concerns regarding the impact on social security. A study on the pension system released by the Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry in 2024 indicates that if the economy maintains its current trend over the next 30 years, beneficiaries of the national pension will get payments that are 30 per cent lower than they are today. The study was based on the median estimate of births, so payments may be even smaller if births fall faster than expected.
“The effects of child-rearing support have not yet been felt,” said Hisakazu Kato, a professor specialising in population economics at Meiji University. “It is important not only to support households raising children, but also to give young people opportunities to get married and have children, such as by revitalising local economies.”
