NEW DELHI (AP) – India will be the world’s most populous country by the end of this month, eclipsing an aging China, the United Nations (UN) said on Monday.
The news comes at a moment when India is promoting itself as a rising international player as the host of this year’s Group of 20 summit.
By the end of April, India’s population is expected to reach 1.425 billion, which means it will match and then surpass China, the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in a statement. The forecast is based on their latest estimates of global population.
It’s not clear exactly when India’s population will pass China’s. It may have already have done so.
Demographers said the limits of population data make it impossible to calculate a date.
Another UN report last week projected that India would have 2.9 million people more than China by midyear, but that was based on snapshots of the populations at the beginning of the year and the middle of the year.
Monday’s announcement is based on an analysis that tried to estimate when the population crossover will take place.
The Indian government, which hasn’t done a census since 2011, has not officially commented on the estimates. The timing of when India surpasses China in population will likely be revised once India conducts its next census, Director of the UNs’ population division John Wilmoth, said at a news conference at UN headquarters in New York.
“The precise timing of this crossover isn’t known, and it will never be known,” Wilmoth said. “There is uncertainty in the data.”
By contrast, India has the world’s largest young population, a higher fertility rate, and has seen a consistent decrease in infant mortality.
Experts caution against alarm about overpopulation, however, as the country’s fertility rate has been steadily falling, from over five births per woman in the 1960s, to two in 2022.
India’s population is expected to stop growing and stabilise around 2064.
