The Brunei Darussalam Meteorological Department (BDMD) announced that El Niño conditions are being observed as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.
Most international climate models forecast further warming of SST is likely and El Niño condition to strengthen over the next few months persisting until early 2024, it added.
El Niño, the ‘warm phase’ of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, occurs every three to seven years on average and tends to peak during Northern Hemisphere winter (December to February). ENSO conditions are monitored by analysing Pacific sea surface temperatures, level winds, cloudiness and sub-surface temperatures.
The BDMD said El Niño brings temporary disruptions to weather patterns worldwide.
The impacts of the phenomenon typically includes suppressed rainfall activity with increasing air temperature and low relative humidity. Drier and hot weather conditions are expected to occur especially during the peak of El Niño with possible increase in maximum daily temperatures reaching 34 degrees Celsius (°C) or more during the afternoon.
Excessive hot weather event, commonly known as heatwave, tends to occur during El Niño and is defined when daily observed maximum temperature is at least 35°C for three consecutive days.
The most recent heatwave observed in the Sultanate was during an El Niño episode on September 28-30, 2019.
The BDMD advised the public to stay up to date with the latest weather updates, take precaution and safety measures as well as follow guidelines by agencies regarding the anticipated drier and hotter weather conditions over the coming months.
Latest weather information, advisories and warnings can be accessed via Brunei WX app, calling Weather Line 114 or visiting www.met.gov.bn.
