KUALA LUMPUR (XINHUA) – Analysts have stayed cautious on Malaysia’s trade outlook amid global trade uncertainties.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a note yesterday that Malaysia’s trade outlook for 2025 is clouded by uncertainties and fluid news flows over United States (US) trade and tariff policies.
The research house has forecast slower exports and imports growth for Malaysia this year at 4.5 per cent and 6.3 per cent and lower trade surplus of MYR120 billion (USD26.81 billion).
According to Maybank, Malaysia’s exports and imports jumped 16.9 per cent and 11.9 per cent year-on-year in December last year, likely on front-loading ahead of ‘Trump 2.0’ amid the US trade policy uncertainties.
Meanwhile, MIDF Research recently stated that it remained cautious that Malaysia’s external trade outlook may be adversely impacted by the escalation in geopolitical conflicts, weaker final demand from major markets and slowdown in global production and trade activities.
The intensification of trade tensions and introduction of tighter trade rules could pose downside risks to global trade activity this year, according to the research house.
It forecasts Malaysia’s external trade to continue growing but at a slower pace next year, with exports and imports to grow at 4.9 per cent and 4.5 per cent.
“We foresee growing demand for electrical and electronics (E&E) products and other non-E&E commodities to support export growth in the coming months, while imports to increase further underpinned by growing domestic demand and increased business activities.”
Hong Leong Investment Bank also said in a note that the global trade outlook remains clouded by rising economic uncertainty, particularly in light of possible shifts in trade policy.
Nevertheless, the research house opined that Malaysia’s export performance is expected to be partly cushioned by its neutral stance, diversified exports structure and potential trade diversions amid a renewed trade war.
Following this, it maintained Malaysia’s 2025 gross domestic product growth forecast at 4.9 per cent year-on-year.
