CNA – The Philippine government yesterday maintained its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at six per cent to seven per cent, confident the country can withstand external and domestic risks, including the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon.
The GDP growth target for the 2024 to 2028 period was kept at 6.5 per cent to eight per cent, an inter-agency panel added, following a review of macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions.
The panel includes the central bank, departments of finance and budget and the economic planning agency.
“These projections have already taken into account the risks posed by El Nino and other natural disasters, global trade tensions, and value chain disruptions, among other factors,” it said.
In the Philippines and other parts of Asia, El Nino usually causes hot, dry weather that results in lower agricultural production and disruption in water and power supplies.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, also the agriculture secretary, has directed all government agencies to implement water conservation measures in light of the looming long dry spell due to El Nino, his office said yesterday.
The agriculture department has also come up with measures to support the farm sector, including buffer stocking of inputs, adjusting planting calendar, and promoting drought tolerant crops.
The Philippine economy grew at an annual pace of 6.4 per cent in the first quarter, cooling to its slowest in two years as red-hot inflation and high interest rates dampened consumption.
Economic Planning Minister Arsenio Balisacan, however, painted a rosy outlook for the year.
“Three-fourths of growth is domestic demand, and we plan to strengthen that to offset headwinds from the global economy,” he said.
The panel revised the 2023 inflation assumption to a narrower five per cent to six per cent versus the previous five per cent to seven per cent, taking into account a recent easing of consumer price pressures.
The 2024-2028 inflation assumption was kept at two per cent to four per cent.
The government’s 2023 GDP growth target is anchored on an exchange-rate assumption of PHP54 to PHP57 per dollar for 2023, revised from PHP53 to PHP57.
The rate assumption for 2024-2028 was unchanged at PHP53 to PHP57 per dollar.
The fiscal assumptions were also unchanged, with annual budget deficits programmed at 6.1 per cent of GDP for 2023, 5.1 per cent for 2024, 4.1 per cent for 2025, 3.5 per cent for 2026, 3.2 per cent for 2027 and three per cent for 2028.
