Brunei’s fertility rate falling, life expectancy up

Azlan Othman

Brunei Darussalam’s population might peak at 0.53 million in 2050, according to a recent study.

The study, published in the medical journal The Lancet, forecasts population scenarios from 2018 to 2100 for 195 countries and territories using estimates from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), an observational epidemiological study that describes mortality and morbidity from major diseases, injuries and risk factors to health at global, national and regional levels.

The Lancet study also said that Brunei’s population in 2017 was 0.43 million. The study also said that the sultanate’s total fertility rate will drop to 1.67 in 2100 and 1.84 in 2050 compared to 1.88 in 2017.

The life expectancy for males in the sultanate is expected to be 77 years in 2050 and 79 years in 2100 while for females it is 80.4 years in 2050 and 82.5 years in 2100.

Brunei’s Department of Economic Planning and Statistics (JPES) in its mid-term 2019 statistics revealed that the mid-year population last year was 459,000 people while the total fertility rate last year was 1.6 compared to 1.8 to 2017.

Life expectancy for males last year was 76.4 years compared to 74.8 years 2017 while for females it was 78.4 years last year and 78.3 years in 2017.

The study also stated that among nations and territories in Asia that would reach its peak population the quickest are Thailand (71.97 million) in 2028, Mauritius (1.3 million) and Sri Lanka (22.34 million) in 2031 and Seychelles (110,000) in 2042.

The region is expected to reach its peak population of 786.84 million in 2052.

The Lancet study also indicated highest reduction in the region by 2100 from 2017 namely in Sri Lanka 51.6 per cent (21.6 million to 10.45 million), Thailand 50.9 per cent (70.63 million to 34.66 million), Mauritius 43.3 per cent (1.27 million to 0.72 million) and Vietnam where the population would shrink to 72.85 million, a 24.2 per cent reduction from
2017 (96.14 million). Only four countries in the region, Malaysia, the Maldives, the Philippines, and Timor Leste, would see their populations increase by 2100, it said. The Lancet study also predicted the world population to peak at 9.732 billion in 2064, before falling to 8.785 billion by 2100 amid declining fertility rates and greying populations.

Out of 195 countries and territories in the study, 183 would have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels by 2100.