China manufacturing slumps as anti-virus controls bite

BEIJING (AP) — China’s manufacturing plunged in February as anti-virus controls shut down the world’s second-largest economy, but companies are confident activity will revive following government stimulus efforts, according to two surveys.

The data add to growing signs of the disease’s cost. Global stock markets have tumbled more than 10 per cent since mid-February as outbreaks in Iran, Italy and South Korea fuelled fears the virus will spread.

Chinese factory activity fell at its fastest rate and to its lowest level on record as anti-disease efforts closed factories and disrupted supplies, according to surveys by a business magazine, China’s statistics agency and an industry group.

A monthly purchasing managers’ index released yesterday by Caixin magazine fell to 40.3 from January’s 51.1 on a 100-point scale on which numbers below 50 show activity contracting.

Despite that, business confidence rose to a five-year high after the ruling Communist Party launched efforts to revive industry with tax cuts and other aid, Caixin said.

“Manufacturers were confident that output would rise over the next year,” the magazine said in a statement. A separate PMI released on Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing fell to 35.7 from January’s 50. The data suggest “the worst is now likely behind us” in China, said Citigroup economists in a report.

“The poor data may accelerate policy interventions to repair the economy,” they wrote.

However, the impact of job losses “will take longer to reverse,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a report.

“With the jump in virus cases overseas, there is a growing risk of a protracted downturn in foreign demand,” wrote Evans-Pritchard. “The likelihood of a quick V-shaped recovery in the coming months is falling fast.”

The group of companies covered by the Caixin survey, begun in 2004, has more private enterprises and exporters. The survey by the NBS and the logistics federation, carried out since 2002, has more state-owned companies that serve China’s domestic market.

Both surveys came in well below previous lows following the 2008 global crisis.

The government extended the Lunar New Year holiday to keep factories and offices closed.

A man wearing a protective face mask walks by shuttered business shops in Beijing. PHOTO: AP