Chicago agricultural commodities close mixed over the week

CHICAGO (Xinhua) – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grains futures settled mixed over the trading week which ended Nov 10, with the long-awaited official yield estimates being the key factor in market ups and downs.

The most active corn contract for December delivery fell 4.75 cents weekly, or 1.36 per cent, to 3.435 dollars per bushel. December wheat delivery rose 5.75 cents, or 1.35 percent, to 4.315 dollars per bushel. November soybeans edged up 0.25 cent, or 0.03 per cent, to 9.87 dollars per bushel over the week.

Before the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly crop supply and demand estimates on Thursday, the trade’s common expectation was that USDA would cut U.S. soybean crop estimate while lifting the corn crop. This pushed up in advance the soybean prices while dragging down the corn futures earlier this week.

Another record-high yield in the USDA November report pulled corn futures further to new lows, but this only lasted for one session and massive technical buying pushed up the prices again.

Analysts with the AgResource Company expect the long-established range between 3.30-3.80 USD in corn futures to hold until more is known about South American harvest potential.

However, a record large short position in corn market might not be maintained too long and a South American weather problem would trigger some rallies, they added.

CBOT wheat futures closed higher this week as world wheat stocks were lowered one million metric tons in the updated USDA monthly report. Short-covering also boosted its prices, with additional support from the latest demands from Middle East countries such as Egypt, Iraq and Turkey.

It is expected that US wheat inventories will decline further into 2019, but the overall structure of the wheat market won’t change without severe drought in the EU or Black Sea region next year. It might take years for world wheat stocks to decrease significantly.

As for soybeans, the USDA data released on Thursday were not as bullish as the trade had expected, as the yield was left unchanged and stocks were only lowered 5 million bushels. In response, the soybean futures took back almost all of the early week gains and closed this trading week fractionally higher.

Still, the January soybean contracts are above the 200-day, 100-day and 50-day moving averages, which will provide support to the market.